Newest existential issue prompts GOP circular firing squad
If you had thought that Indiana was offering Congress and the President a sober, thinking example of how government should work under single-party control, you would have been correct – until August. The President’s edict that assorted states – including, and eventually, particularly, Indiana – should redistrict (and to a 9-0 result) has led to a total upending of Hoosier politics.
The bottom line: a Hoosier Republican Party that enjoyed a unified supermajority in the legislature and boasted total control of the executive branch is in what can only be characterized as total disarray . . . threatening the future of the supermajority and perhaps effective governing majority – at least until or unless the family feud can be resolved.
Last week we suggested that the chain of events would be potentially career-changing for many, but now it’s looking like it could be career-ending for some who have staked out positions of any sort; note that this has morphed into a binary litmus test for Republicans: do you support new maps or not? There is no more room for nuance such as eight solid GOP districts versus nine, or waiting until they see actual maps, or whether the maps will be dictated from D.C. instead of generated by state party computers.
If you’re a Republican lawmaker (particularly a senator), the time when you could have hidden behind Governor Mike Braun (R) and his once relatively subdued support for a special session and new maps changed big-time after his formal special session call, with the gubernatorial rhetoric cranked up with each ratcheting up on the screws from the White House.
Getting to Where We Are
Headed into the Friday, November 14 pre-Organization Day gathering of the Senate Majority Caucus, Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray (R) continued to suggest that the votes were not there in his caucus to advance new congressional district maps. Some of the caucus were actively and openly lobbying for new maps, while those who were opposed to mid-decade redistricting did not largely reach out in the same way, generally framing their individual decisions as being precipitated by anti-remapping sentiment back home, a belief that the maps drawn up by Republicans in 2021 were fair, there was no need to set a potentially uncontrollable new precedent, or a combination of factors.
In the days – and hours leading up to the November 14 caucus, as well as again on Organization Day itself, some senators who had kept their powder dry to that point revealed where they stood on new maps, but the Senate votes were not obviously there for special session redistricting. As the caucus approached, the question seemed to shift to one of whether Sen. Bray would countenance December session days and a vote in the belief that the pressure on just a veritable handful of lawmakers being under the bright, hot national spotlight would ultimately lead to a majority favoring new maps.
But just as many are now starting to contend nationally (not quite in retrospect, but close to it), the Trump White House and national Republican political operation may have overplayed its hand, and one Indiana-specific item may have come into play last week when the White House pushed for signatures on a pro-redistricting missive. That seemed to have been the final straw for some who had acceded to D.C. demands, and emotions were high in caucus and expressed to Sen. Bray, who listened to how life-long friendships and decades-old political relationships were being destroyed over an issue that many had assumed to entirely be an Inside the Limestone concern.
Eventually, as these concerns were expressed along with those of some, like Sen. Sue Glick (R), who refused to commit to voting on maps they hadn’t even seen, or others who didn’t want to pass maps they couldn’t choose between or tweak, it was clear that the “up or down” votes were not there in the Senate at this point.
Hannah News Service was first to break the news from caucus in a tweet and Sen. Bray quickly followed up with confirming statement: “Over the last several months, Senate Republicans have given very serious and thoughtful consideration to the concept of redrawing our state’s congressional maps. Today, I’m announcing there are not enough votes to move that idea forward, and the Senate will not reconvene in December.”
Ramping up the Repub Rhetoric
That news set off a deluge, some from inside the Senate Majority Caucus itself, some from state and congressional leaders, and some from the White House and affiliated national entities.
Governor Braun stepped up his rhetoric by firing back 30 minutes later: “I called for our legislators to convene to ensure Hoosiers’ voices in Washington, DC are not diluted by the democrats’ gerrymandering. Our state senators need to do the right thing and show up to vote for fair maps. Hoosiers deserve to know where their elected officials stand on important issues.”
Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith (R), the president of the Senate, weighed in as well: “I fully support the Governor. We should speak up – not stand by and let our voices continue to be watered down. Our state senators owe it to the people of Indiana to show up for the job they were elected to do. Indiana voters deserve to know where their senators stand; this must be a public vote! No more secret meetings by Rod Bray.”
In an interesting aside here . . . query whether Rep. Julie McGuire (R), if she had been nominated and elected lieutenant governor, would have been as supportive of Gov. Braun on this issue as Lt. Governor Beckwith – selected in convention over the objection of Braun – or whether she would have proven to be more of an institutionalist, siding with Sen. Bray.
The Governor’s displeasure was quickly followed by the wrath of the Trump political team. Top presidential political advisor Chris LaCivita ominously tweeted “Better buckle up” attached to the Bray statement, and following up with a “BREAKING: Sen Rodric Bray announces retirement” slam.
Members of the Hoosier congressional delegation then offered their thoughts.
U.S. Rep. André Carson (D), whose district was at risk, tweeted “Prayer, people, and partnerships power change. Hoosiers do things differently. We’re about collaboration, not division. We’re about independent thinking – not taking orders from Washington. I want to thank Senator Bray and all the Republican and Democratic members of the Indiana Statehouse who held firm on Hoosier values. This is a win for all of us.” Rep. Carson’s grandmother served in the Indiana House with Sen. Bray’s father more than 50 years ago.
U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan (D), whose district was Ground Zero for the Republican remap, offered these temperate words. “Today’s announcement should not come as a surprise to any Hoosier. As a lifelong resident of Northwest Indiana, and as someone whose father proudly served in the Indiana State Senate, we can all appreciate the thoughtful and deliberate work that went into the 2022 redistricting process. “As we move forward, I remain committed to ensuring that every community in our region and state can grow and prosper. At a time when rising costs are harming families, workers, and farmers, we must stand together and focus on solutions that lower expenses and strengthen our economy. The only way to deliver lasting progress for Northwest Indiana is through genuine collaboration at every level of government. I look forward to continuing this essential work with all of our federal, state, and local partners to build a stronger, more affordable future for every resident of Indiana.” Rep. Mrvan’s father served in the Indiana Senate with Sen. Bray’s father.
U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R), who had been the most vocal member of the delegation advocating for new maps, lashed out: “Hoosiers deserve fair maps. This is unacceptable.” After that initial reaction, the former member of the Indiana Senate gathered his thoughts and tweeted this: “Senator Bray and anti-Trump Indiana Senate Republicans made it clear today that they would rather protect André Carson, stand with Pete Buttigieg, and let Gavin Newsom steamroll Hoosier voices than support the conservative America First agenda. President Trump won Indiana by nearly 20 points almost one year ago to date, and still Indiana Senators would rather work on behalf of the Democrat Party than their own constituents. Indiana is a Republican state, and conservative Hoosiers deserve equal representation in Washington. I am calling on the Senate to hold a redistricting vote, even if it will fail, so Hoosiers can see if their Senator stands with President Trump or the rudderless Democratic Socialist movement.” An initial version of this statement had referred just to the “leftist movements,” but we noticed that the descriptor was ultimately changed.
U.S. Rep. Mark Messmer (R) directly assailed Sen. Bray, whom he had partnered with as the Senate majority floor leader until that relationship frayed and Messmer was replaced in that leadership post by Sen. Chris Garten (R) – who favors new maps. “Senator Rod Bray is more interested in defending the flawed maps he drew in 2021 than in doing what’s right for the people of Indiana. It’s time to stop voting behind closed doors. Leadership means having to stand up and be counted and give the people you represent the respect they deserve. Senator Bray and members of the Indiana Senate can either side with President Trump or side with Governors Gavin Newsom and JD Pritzker who want to hand the country back over to the radical far left. It is really that simple,” concludes Rep. Messmer, who voted for those very same “flawed maps” in 2021.
In a Thursday op-ed, Rep Messmer points to the damage that he sees Democrats doing to the country if they regain control of Congress (topped by “many attempts to impeach Trump and a return to relentless attacks on our national traditions and a disdain for our country’s venerable history”), and proclaims that “It is not hyperbolic to remind Hoosier elected leaders that America is depending upon them to find the courage to defend us all against serious adversaries. It is crucial that we support President Trump’s plans to save America from financial failure and from the ideals of Socialists and Communists infiltrating the Democrat Party.” He notes passing a new congressional map, “while doing nothing to affect their own respective election boundaries, will help level the national playing field for all Americans.”
U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R) jumped in as well, despite potentially having the most to lose in terms of GOP votes in new maps. “@INSenateGOP should not be hiding behind closed doors but putting their votes on the board,” she said of her former colleagues on the west side of the Rotunda. “Hoosiers deserve transparency. Voters should know whether their senators stand with President Trump or with the NY & CA socialists destroying our country.”
And as POLITICO’s Adam Wren was reporting late Friday that the White House political team was already on the phone “summoning Indiana lawmakers to meet with the president in the Oval Office,” and the Trump political operation kicked into higher gear. Hoosier political consultant Marty Obst, part of the Trump team, explained that “It’s a shame Senator Bray blocked the Special Session. It’s clear he does not support President Trumps agenda …. Like elections, decisions have consequences. I anticipate those consequences to be severe,” adds Obst, who oversaw strategy for the 2024 Brad Chambers (R) gubernatorial primary effort and now run the Fair Maps Indiana entity at the Trump team’s request. “My advice is that Senators should spend every moment raising money. They’re going to need it.”
Then things got really crazy. Sen. Liz Brown (R), a key committee chair and assistant majority floor leader appointed by Sen. Bray who faces a strong primary challenge from the right in May, posted a picture of a “Welcome to Indiana Crossroads of America” sign with the Crossroads photoshopped out in favor of the word “Cowards.” “How cowardly that we couldn’t even take a vote,” Sen. Brown tweeted. “This is the time to stand up to Democrats who wish ill upon us, not cower to their demands.”
MAGA influencers from Jack Prosobiec to Alex Bruesewitz also entered the fray. Fresh off a keynote gig at the iconic Allen County Republican Party Bean Dinner, top conservative (and Trump) political consultant Bruesewitz proclaimed that “Our party can no longer afford to harbor these gutless, self-serving traitors who stab us in the back while accomplishing absolutely nothing,” He warned that “The entire MAGA movement will be mobilizing to Indiana to PRIMARY and OUST every last RINO blocking these essential reforms to RESCUE our nation, this will include the totally clueless and weak State Senate President.”
Then, on Sunday, we started to hear directly from the President:
Very disappointed in Indiana State Senate Republicans, led by RINO Senators Rod Bray and Greg Goode, for not wanting to redistrict their State, allowing the United States Congress to perhaps gain two more Republican seats. The Democrats have done redistricting for years, often illegally, and all other appropriate Republican States have done it. Because of these two politically correct type “gentlemen,” and a few others, they could be depriving Republicans of a Majority in the House, A VERY BIG DEAL! California is trying to pick up five seats, and no one is complaining about that. It’s weak “Republicans” that cause our Country such problems — It’s why we have crazy Policies and Ideas that are so bad for America. Also, a friend of mine, Governor Mike Braun, perhaps, is not working the way he should to get the necessary Votes. Considering that Mike wouldn’t be Governor without me (Not even close!), is disappointing! Any Republican that votes against this important redistricting, potentially having an impact on America itself, should be PRIMARIED. Indiana is a State with strong, smart, and patriotic people. They want us to see our Country WIN, and want to, “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Senators Bray, Goode, and the others to be released to the public later this afternoon, should DO THEIR JOB, AND DO IT NOW! If not, let’s get them out of office, ASAP.
We’re still waiting on the list the President promised, but just a few hours later, the Terre Haute home of Sen. Greg Goode (R) was the subject of a swatting incident. Sen. Goode had convened the locally praised and nationally watched high-profile and respectful constituent-only listening session that effectively generated only opposition to redistricting. That attack brought lots of calls for people to chill out, including one from Sen. Goode’s boss in his day job, U.S. Sen. Todd Young (R), himself never a MAGA favorite. Even after Tuesday’s Organization Day, Sen. Goode had not let on how he planned to vote on maps if afforded the opportunity.
“Redistricting went from an annoying distraction to a real problem,” Terre Haute Mayor Brandon Sakbun (D) tweeted after the incident. “To those who seek to waste tax payer dollars by engaging in swatting, we will find you and you will face legal consequences. Cut the bs,” concluded the Democratic mayor, how had opened City Hall to the Republican senator for the listening session, and ensured that city police would be on hand to maintain order – though it turned out that they were not needed.
(The redistricting rage expanded. On Wednesday, the day after he voted to adjourn until January, Sen. Dan Dernulc (R) revealed that “Today, my family and I were victims of a swatting attempt” as well, but local law enforcement in Highland was quick to analyze and recognize the callout as false . . . on Thursday morning, Sen. Spencer Deery (R), a redistricting opponent, disclosed that “local law enforcement thwarted an attempted swatting attack on me and my family” – one “preceded the night before by someone sending an unpaid pizza delivery to my address” in West Lafayette . . . another no on maps, Sen. Rick Niemeyer (R) of Lowell also spoke of a Wednesday incident in which his home was subject to a swatting incident . . . and anti-redistricting Sen. Kyle Walker (R) reports late Thursday that “Attempts have been made to intimidate me and threaten violence at my home. I am grateful to local and state law enforcement personnel for their ongoing efforts to keep us safe, and for their work to identify and hold these criminals accountable.”)
On Monday, Governor Braun held a conversation lasting more than 10 minutes with the President, and doubled down on his own statements after the Friday Senate Majority Caucus meeting. “I just had a great call with President Trump! I told him I remain committed to standing with him on the critical issue of passing fair maps in Indiana to ensure the MAGA agenda is successful in Congress. Indiana’s State Legislators must show up for work and take a public vote for fair maps to counter the gerrymandering in California and Illinois. But the Indiana State Senate is hiding behind closed doors and refusing to even bring redistricting to a vote. Hoosiers deserve to know where their legislators stand and expect them to show up for work, not walk out and hide in the dark.”
Also Monday, the four legislative leaders appeared at the Indiana Chamber of Commerce legislative preview event and avoided talking about a special session.
Through the morning and afternoon on Monday, the President devoted attention on his social media accounts to Indiana events, making it abundantly clear that he viewed the action (or inaction) as a personal affront.
I will be strongly endorsing against any State Senator or House member from the Great State of Indiana that votes against the Republican Party, and our Nation, by not allowing for Redistricting for Congressional seats in the United States House of Representatives as every other State in our Nation is doing, Republican or Democrat. Democrats are trying to steal our seats everywhere, and we’re not going to let this happen! This all began with the Rigged Census. We must keep the Majority at all costs. Republicans must fight back!
In the entire United States of America, Republican or Democrat, only Indiana “Republican” State Senator Rod Bray, a Complete and Total RINO, is opposed to redistricting for purposes of gaining additional Seats in Congress. The Democrats have proven to be dishonest and untrustworthy in anything having to do with Elections or Election Integrity. Republicans must be TOUGH and SMART if we are going to WIN the Midterms. The Rod Brays of Politics are WEAK and PATHETIC. I wish he cared about saving our Country as much as Democrats care about destroying it. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Lines are forming to run against RINO Indiana Senator Rod Bray, and those few other Senators who support him, in the upcoming Primaries. Every one of them will lose, in Record Numbers. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAGA!
On Monday night, Gov. Braun and Rep. Stutzman were interviewed live on the Newsmax Rob Schmitt Tonight show. The Guv said that the President “knows where I’m at in this whole navigation. I can call them into session, and I did that with plenty of time. This has been several months, Rob, where they’ve been dragging their seat. And as more senators started coming forward, they actually put the wet blanket on it, because they knew it was going to get there. And that’s where the Senate pro tem said they’re not even gonna gavel into session. The House has already said they’ve got the number of votes needed, and they’ve gotta at least do it to put pressure on the Senate. This is clearly a Senate leadership group that has no interest in doing this. I mean this has big implications in terms of the agenda in D.C.
Rep. Stutzman added, “I’d say I don’t understand it. We have supermajorities in Indiana. We’ve had them since 2010, somewhere in there, 2012. We’ve had a strong conservative lieuten – legislature for some time. And I basically think it’s just that they don’t understand the fight were in. I mean, you know, President Trump took a bullet to the ear. He’s been investigated. He’s been impeached. He’s gone to the wall for the American people to save this country. And these senators need to understand: that’s is the fight we’re in. It’s a very different fight in Indiana, in the legislature. When you get to the federal level, Democrats are willing to, you know, go to the wall for their politics, and they’re much better at politics than what we have been. President Trump has actually taught us how to fight back.
Governor Braun then took over again. “They think that we’re jumping the gun because we’re doing it mid-census. Democrats have done this They’re complaining so much because they’ve got everything so gerrymandered. And they’re actually thinking this is just out of order; we shouldn’t be doing it. And when Marlin just mentioned why, there’s a lot at stake, not to mention that our direct comparison, Massachusetts – same number of electoral votes – has been gerrymandered for nearly two decades. The six bluest states outside of California have three times the number of electoral votes as the six reddest states. They don’t equivocate about it. And, yes, you’re condoning big Democratic liberal policies by not at least evening the playing field. Evening the playing field is what’s at stake,:” he believes.
The Braun bottom line suggests a new strategy: “So the House needs to get it across the line to pressure the Senate, and then we are ready within a couple votes. We’ll make it public. We’ll get it over the hump. We’ll get it done.”
In an interview Wednesday morning with WISH-TV News 8’s Hanna Mordoh, the Governor dismisses suggestions that Hoosiers have been largely opposed to redistricting.
“You want to hear who those constituents have been? Nearly 100% Democrats and moderate and liberal independents,” he contends, despite separate Republican pollsters independently returning data showing the same thing about Hoosiers writ large, and even relatively low support among Republicans for new maps. “Republicans haven’t been loud on it,” the Governor believes. “Now, they’re getting louder when they look at what is at stake or when you explain the unfairness of the current configuration. President Trump has talked to them twice. JD Vance has been in here twice. And it has been moving – there are more senators publicly for it than there are against it. The others have been hiding behind the fact that Rod Bray is not bringing it to a public discussion, just like the House is going to do. He says there are not the votes.”
(Dis)Organization Day
On Tuesday, Organization Day, the pro-redistricting rally highly touted by MAGA-aligned entities on social media (and organized by Cathie Humbarger, one of the top non-party issue advocates in the state over the past few decades) attracted no more than about four-dozen people to the State House Rotunda, excited to have their pictures taken with two prominent redistricting backers, Lt. Governor Beckwith and Secretary of State Diego Morales (R) – who was not asked about how labeling district lines as unfair promoted voter confidence in the system.
Finally . . . Organization Day rolled around and the Senate convened at 1:30 p.m.
However, the President – even as he was preparing for the state visit from the Saudi Arabian leader that same day (he even brought up the Indiana situation in an Oval Office scrum with the crown prince Tuesday afternoon!), couldn’t resist becoming part of the conversation again Tuesday morning.
I am working with Governor Mike Braun and other Indiana Republicans, on picking up two Republican Congressional seats. The Governor, a good man, must produce on this, or he will be the only Governor, Republican or Democrat, who didn’t. I won Indiana in a landslide, the most votes ever gotten in the State – Such an HONOR! A RINO State Senator, Rodric Bray, who doesn’t care about keeping the Majority in the House in D.C., is the primary problem. Soon, he will have a Primary Problem, as will any other politician who supports him in this stupidity. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT
The one item of business: SCR 1, which would allow the Senate and the House of Representatives to adjourn and recess separately throughout the periods in excess of three consecutive days – and both chambers would return January 5, effectively putting the kibosh on a December redistricting effort. Sen. Jim Tomes (R) explained his vote, but the centerpiece of the opposition was Sen. Mike Young (R), such a thorn in the side of leadership that he had largely been bounced from the caucus long ago, so he could speak openly without fear of retribution. “This is a slap in the face of the governor of the State of Indiana to do something like this,” Sen. Young told colleagues, as he detailed why redistricting was necessary and how the schedule should work.
“I believe we have an obligation to protect what we think is important in our nation, and that’s governance by our party,” Sen. Young added, making the political argument. “Imagine waking up on Wednesday, the day after the election next November, and we find ourselves in the minority by one or two votes. I don’t know if I’ll cry that morning. I know I’m going to be sick to my stomach knowing that we have the opportunity to ensure that that doesn’t happen.”
The Senate then took a formal roll call vote instead of a voice vote on the concurrent resolution – an unusual step. With Senate Committee on Appropriations Chair Ryan Mishler (R) and Sen. Jim Buck (R) absent, the CR passed 29-19, with 19 Republicans (including Sen. Bray) joining all 10 Democrats in the majority, and 19 Republicans opposed. That’s a certainly a “unicorn” roll call. The Guv was peeved that Sen. Bray “is using Democrats to get it across the finish line because half of his Republican caucus is not with him on this issue.”
Just in case you think he might have been speaking out of school, he says largely the same thing to WISH-TV’s Mordoh Wednesday morning. “I just want it to be a public discussion to where you get them in the public on a vote without hiding behind closed doors,” the Governor explains. “He’s pulled that, and I don’t think that’s representative of his own caucus. And just yesterday, to adjourn until January, he had to get Democrats on vote to actually do that, because half of his Republican caucus was against it.”
Sen. Bray released this statement following the action:
I want to be abundantly clear that our Senate Republican Caucus wants to see a Republican-held House in 2026 so that President Trump can continue making progress on important issues like fighting illegal immigration and crime in our country.
However, many in my caucus, myself included, do not feel that redrawing our Congressional districts mid-cycle is the best way to achieve that goal. We would rather support efforts to elect a Republican in the existing 1st Congressional District, which has been trending Republican for the last several years and would give President Trump another Republican in Congress.
We don’t believe the choice to redistrict is a binary choice where we will either keep a 7-2 map or draw one that automatically becomes 9-0. Candidates in these hypothetical districts have not walked a parade, attended a county fair or raised a dollar. And that’s before we get through primary season, in which we can assuredly expect competition.
I’ve had the honor to speak with the President on this issue, and I have expressed to him that our caucus is supportive of him and wants to maintain Republican control of the House, which is why we believe pursuing Congressional District 1 is the best way forward.
He also elaborated on the situation in a media scrum on the Senate floor following the conclusion of business.
“I want to make it abundantly clear that every member of our Senate caucus wants there to be a Republican majority in the House of Representatives in 2026,” Sen. Bray assures. “That’s the goal that we have, similar to the goal that Trump has. It’s desperately important, and Senator Mike Young articulated some of that fairly well today.”
He continues, “I guess the issue is that I’m not sure that a number of members of our caucus – I’m included in that number – don’t feel like it’s the right way to move forward, simply because it’s not the right way to get that goal achieved. We would rather take a look at congressional district one. It is a district that’s been trending red over the last several years,” and he points to Sen. Dan Dernulc (R), noting that in Lake County that there may have been only one other Republican senator there in the last 100 years. “And now we have that the Republicans hold that seat, so evidence that it’s really trending red …. I guess the issue is, when it comes down to that, is that a number of our caucus members, myself included, don’t see this as a binary choice between the seven to two ratio they have right now, and redistricting and getting to an automatic nine.”
Similar to what we have been trying to impress upon you in these pages over the past few months, Sen. Bray explains, “Right now we don’t know what those districts are. There is no preeminent candidate in either of those seats that is a person that’s going to be able to run for that seat that we know will have strong support and potentially win. There’ll be a primary race, and definitely, assuredly, if we did that, and that person, whoever would come out of it, hasn’t had day one to go into a parade or a festival, and hasn’t started on day one yet to raise $1 of money for that campaign. So we feel like we would not necessarily get to a 9-0 map or 9-0 ratio at that point in time …. this is trying to do the best thing for the State of Indiana and was as well as for the United States of America.”
Sen. Bray adds one more procedural point: “I’ll talk about why we decided not to come in today. We typically, when there’s an issue, if we know we don’t have the votes for, we don’t typically come in. This, I recognize, is a little bit of a different issue, like it’s got a little more attention than some of our even more public bills, but that is typically how we handle that when we don’t have the votes to pass it. And as you can see from the resolution that we passed today, that passed, and so I think that’s moderately, fairly, indicative of the vote that you might have seen when, if we were to vote on the redistricting issue itself, you know, if we were to come in and spend two weeks in December doing that, while we have set it up where we could do other work at the same time where other committees could meet, it still wouldn’t be nearly as productive as when we come back in January, primarily because our members haven’t got all their bills finished. They’re still in the pipeline of being drafted and finalized, and so those two weeks wouldn’t be nearly as productive. And we need to be productive when we get the ground in January to work on things like the challenge of our economy and making sure that we have affordable, affordable State of Indiana, the Senate leader concludes.
Bray also cites the “serious challenge” to local election officials “to try and get all that ready precinct changes that might come with that. So, that would be a Herculean effort on their part. So we kind of need to be cognizant of that. And on the other side, yeah, this is a high profile issue. It’s important to people, and so we recognize there’s a political [fallout] for that, and next year’s election year 2026, so all those who are on the ballot are all subject to a primary election, as well as a November election.”
Following the Senate action, the House convened at 2:00 p.m. and House Speaker Todd Huston (R) told his members to hold open the first two weeks of December for a potential return to the State House. The House calendar details a “Potential Special Session” covering Monday, December 1 through Friday, December 12.
As a key point of reference, the Big Ten football championship game is scheduled for Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday, December 6.
In a media scrum after he gaveled out for the day, Speaker Huston made clear that “My preferred outcome is we redistrict. So you know that will be – that’s the preferred outcome of the House Republicans.”
He explains, “Throughout the ongoing good faith discussions on congressional redistricting, I made it clear that House Republicans have the necessary votes to address this issue, and we stand ready to get the job done. It’s time for Hoosiers to acknowledge that we’re not operating in a vacuum. Multiple states around the country, from California, Virginia, to Texas and Missouri have already drawn, or are in the process of redrawing their maps. California just got a proposition on the ballot that recently passed.”
Speaker Huston continues, “Ultimately, I hope Congress takes action to prohibit mid-decade redistricting to ensure every state is operating under the same rules. But until that happens, Indiana cannot bury its head in the sand. This is not a question of whether we join the fight. The fight is already here. The choice is whether we choose to unilaterally disengage, or do we use every tool our disposal to help win and ensure Republicans have a fair chance in the upcoming federal elections? I’ve told my team to continue keeping the first two weeks of December open on their calendars. My hope is that with our great colleagues in the Senate embrace this, and then we all return in early December for a special session to pass new maps.”
Ironically, that’s also the week that some senators have been invited to visit the White House for chats about the exigency surrounding new maps.
Speaker Huston says that “I feel confident” that the House will vote on new maps, but “there’s still discussion to be had, and we’ll continue to have those discussions over the upcoming weeks.”
The Governor then ramped up his rhetoric and pressure on his party and their leaders in the Senate. “I am glad to see Speaker Huston and House Republicans publicly endorse the need for fair maps. We look forward to them returning in December to vote to advance them. Momentum is building and it’s time now for our state senators to commit to showing up for work,” he begins. “Unfortunately, Sen. Rod Bray was forced to partner with DEMOCRATS to block an effort by the growing number of America First Senators who wanted to have a vote on passing fair maps.”
Gov. Braun tells WISH-TV’s Mordoh that he wants to see a public vote, but “he doesn’t want to do it. Then he’s got his leadership team and a few others that are staying with him,” the Governor says, despite the majority floor leader and the assistant majority floor leader parting ways with Bray on the maps. “We want to get it to where you do that publicly, because it was cascading so quickly. That is when he made the move just recently to say that they’re not coming back in session. Two things: Half of his caucus is for it. Now with that vote that we saw yesterday, and there are four or five others that if you bring it into a public discussion, we think we’ll get there. If not, then he’s at least done the minimum obligation, don’t hide, come into session, have it in a public discussion. That’s what is minimally being asked.”
Remarkably, the Governor tells Dan Spehler of WXIN-TV Fox 59 in Indianapolis on Wednesday that he believes that Sen. Bray deliberately shut down the Senate Tuesday to avoid passing new maps. “I think since so many senators were actually coming that direction, and we can now see 20, I think that’s when Pro Tem Bray decided to pull the plug because if it kept cascading, I think they would have been there,” Braun said. And he thinks that a vote can still happen in the Senate “unless pro tem Bray digs in and even isn’t taking a cue, you know, from his own members.”
“Now I am left with no choice other than to explore all options at my disposal to compel the State Senate to show up and vote,” the Governor adds, without indicating just what those tools might be (although the new Indiana State Police Ford Mustang pursuit cars might be able to catch any lawmakers who might make a December run for the border, like the Democratic dash to the Land of Lincoln to avoid a Right to Work vote).
While it’s not within his powers, the Governor does tell Fox 59’s Spehler Wednesday that a change of leadership in the Senate may be appropriate if Bray doesn’t deliver on districts. When asked if he “might support a change in leadership in the state Senate and the caucus,” the Governor immediately responded, “definitely.” “Because if it’s dragging its feet and keeping Indiana from doing things like we could, especially with the relationship we have with the administration, you know, who knows what happens with that good relationship if Rod Bray single-handedly tries to torpedo this,” he adds. “we can’t have a Senate that’s constantly a wet blanket.”
The President, adds the Governor, didn’t make any specific threat, but “he just obviously wants to get this done. He’s probably having a hard time seeing why one individual, pro tem Bray, is putting a roadblock in it.”
We can tell you that no governor has publicly (and probably not privately, as well) spoken that way about a leader of his party dating back to at least the 1970s. But you’ve also never heard a lieutenant governor denigrate his own office and chamber as Lt. Governor Beckwith did in a social media post Wednesday evening: “From here on out, whenever I introduce myself… whether it’s to one person or a thousand… I’m going to say: ‘I’m the Lt. Governor of the great state of Indiana… and the President of the WEAK Indiana Senate.’ Because let’s call it what it is: not showing up to vote is weakness. Refusing to take a public stand is weakness. Hiding behind closed doors while Hoosiers demand accountability is weakness. And right now, the Senate is proving just how weak it can be. Indiana deserves better. Hoosiers deserve leaders who show up, stand tall, and do their jobs. Enough is enough.”
Primary Challenges
Then comes the stunning and chilling words that carried a bunch more gravitas than those from LG Beckwith: “I will support President Trump’s efforts to recruit, endorse, and finance primary challengers for Indiana’s senators who refuse to support fair maps.” “Grassroots conservatives, Republicans across the state, need to get engaged,” Gov. Braun urges. “This redistricting issue won’t go away until it cycles through next year’s primaries.”
Even if the Governor’s own approval numbers are low and opposition to redistricting is high – and that he really has no chits to speak of to parcel out after just 10 months in office – recall that he’s been actively raising cash, putatively for a reelection run in 2028, but if he believes that his legislative legs are being cut out from under him, he could seek revenge by spreading around some of that in legislative primaries six and 30 months from now.
Sen. Bray continues to try to dial down the temperature. He responds to the Governor’s statement by saying “Senate Republicans may have a difference of opinion on a policy matter with the governor, and that happens from time to time, but we are committed to pursuing policies that will make life better for Hoosiers, and we will continue to look for ways to collaborate with the governor.”
Primary challenges have already emerged – in large part thanks to the Lieutenant Governor – against Sens. Spencer Deery (R) and Ron Alting (R), the latter of whom has gone on record in favor of new maps), and more challengers and cash to support them are being organized by the Trump political team and groups including Club for Growth and Turning Point USA’s political action committee . . . but just how many candidates might face primaries, and where did they side on Tuesday’s floor vote to push any potential redistricting before January . . . when just about everyone acknowledges it would be too late (filing for U.S. House races opens January 5, the same day the Senate plans to return to Indianapolis, and closes about one month later, during the first week of February; that doesn’t even account for the work needed by county clerks to draw up new district lines and reprecinct, nor does it consider the time needed for county GOP officials to elect district leaders as required under party by laws – who could help prevent a deluge of both congressional and state legislative primary contenders)?
“I’m on a mission now,” LG Beckwith said in an interview with Dave Bangert of the Based in Lafayette, Indiana Substack newsletter Tuesday afternoon. “I’m going after senators. I’m going to help anyone who wants to primary these weak senators. (Turning Point) USA is on board. I’ve been talking with them. The White House is on board. We’ve got influencers like Scott Pressler coming over to Indiana that are going to drive massive turnout for these primaries. I wasn’t going to do it. I was trying to play nice. The governor and I have been very, very kind. We’ve been extending olive branches. But over the last year, those olive branches just keep getting slapped back at us. Enough.”
Lt. Gov. Beckwith continues, “I think they’re coming with everything they’ve got. That’s the message that’s being communicated to me. And by the way, it’s not just the White House. It’s places like Turning Point. Their Turning Point Action has a lot of money, and they’ve literally said, ‘Tell us the candidates in the primaries to support, because we’re coming to Indiana, and we’re putting a lot of effort into Indiana.’ So I don’t think it’s just going to be the White House. I think you’re going to see huge amounts of money and time by national organizations that have a whole lot of influence and power behind them …. I would imagine you’re going to see influencers, maybe like the Scott Presslers of the world, start coming to Indiana next month, and then once the filing deadline hits in February, I think you’re going to start to see a whole lot of movement.”
The LG also emphasizes to Bangert, “Again, I didn’t want this. Again, Gov. Braun and I were trying to be peaceful about it. But the Senate, what they did this past weekend was very not peaceful …. Now, if we can get this across the finish line, though, it doesn’t have to be this way. This is what I want the senators to know. There’s still time. They can pull this back. I know the President, just like everyone else does, he’s very forgiving. He might come at you hard one day, but if you say, ‘OK, I’m going to go along with what you’re saying, Mr. President,’ you’ll be his best friend the next day. So, I think there’s still time for guys like Sen. Bray to fix this situation, and I’m very much encouraging them to do that. If we can call off the dogs, I would be more than happy to do that. But I’m telling you, we are getting so much national attention, and it’s not good right now. People are just ticked on some of these big, large-scale national conservative organizations. They’re like, Indiana is a big problem. We need to fix it.”
We’ve been asked to detail which seats are up for reelection in 2026, and here are the senators to watch headed into the May primaries (along with the two who have already announced their retirements):
Republican Democrat Open
Alexander (R) Ford (D) Bassler (R)
Alting (R) Hunley (D) G. Walker (R)
Brown (R) Pol (D)
Buck (R)
Byrne (R)
Deery (R)
Dernulc (R)
Garten (R)
Gaskill (R)
Goode (R)
Holdman (R)
Johnson (R)
Maxwell (R)
Niemeyer (R)
Raatz (R)
Rogers (R)
Schmitt (R)
Tomes (R)
K. Walker (R)
Zay (R)
Now let’s break down the group of those up for reelection in 2026 by their respective votes Tuesday on whether to meet in December to redistrict or instead reconvene on January 5, and we’re likely looking at about five to seven could be targeted – but doing so in potentially as many as three districts could end up backfiring on the Trump/Braun partnership in the fall if they are successful in choosing a new candidate in the spring.
December January Excused
Alexander (R) Bassler (R) Buck (R)
Alting (R) Deery (R)
Brown (R) Dernulc (R)
Byrne (R) Ford (D)
Garten (R) Goode (R)
Gaskill (R) Holdman (R)
Johnson (R) Hunley (D)
Maxwell (R) Niemeyer (R)
Raatz (R) Pol (D)
Rogers (R) Tomes (R)
Schmitt (R) G. Walker (R)
Zay (R) K. Walker (R)
Italics denote announced not seeking reelection
Meanwhile . . . there’s still the opportunity for the House to reconvene early in December and pass new maps (though no one has seen any maps nor the vaunted tax conformance legislation yet – and at the chamber event Monday, leaders implied that they have not even seen full fiscal notes nor determined policy choices yet).
On Monday, Rep. Bob Morris (R) sat down with Kayla Blakeslee of WOWO 1190-AM in Fort Wayne and declared, “Mike Braun is our leader.” Rep. Morris reminds listeners that “We have about two weeks before December 1st. I am sure Rod Bray, the leader that he is, that he is meeting with his members daily to ensure that they have the votes to pass this legislation. That’s what a good leader does, Kayla. They meet with their respective members and make sure that this language is passed,” Morris suggests.
In any event, he continues, “The Speaker of the House has informed me to make arrangements to be at the state capitol on December 1st and I will be sitting in my seat serving the people of the 84th district.” Rep. Morris adds, “There’s many senators that continue to flip back and forth, and I’m sure when this legislation hits the Senate floor, they will be voting on it, and they will vote the right way,” but regardless, “we have a duty to go back into session.”
Rep. Morris, who was the first public Trump backer in 2016 still in the General Assembly, wants the House to act to turn up the heat on the Senate. “I think it’s unprecedented. When we pass this legislation, Kayla, my colleagues across, you know, in the Senate are going to have to deal with it. They are going to have to take it to the floor and show us your votes. And I know from talking to many members of the Senate, that are wishy-washy right now, they’re gonna – if it’s before them, they’re gonna vote on it. So let’s get it done.”
Morris adds that “I will be there December 1 with Liz Brown, Tyler Johnson, Martin Carbaugh, Chris Judy, Dave Heine, and a handful others that are behind us.”
Cartological Coda
You can look at this deep divide as simply an amplified version of the inherent tension between the Governor and the Third Floor, or between chambers of the General Assembly, or a combination, and you wouldn’t be wrong. One branch is almost always angling for supremacy of some sort, and if you’ve only been paying attention for the past dozen or so years of supermajority rule and unified Republican control of the wheels of government, you haven’t seen a lot of this because priorities have largely been consonant and the process has been smoother than Back in the Day, when Democrats controlled the House, a Democratic governor was in office, or Republicans were forced to govern with tighter margins.
What we’ve not seen in the past few decades, however, is a governor with such low approval ratings, numbers that give legislative leaders (and even rank-and-file lawmakers) the confidence to stand up to Gov. Braun (and even President Trump, whose unfavorables are as high as they may have ever been in Indiana). Kayla Dwyer queried in an Indianapolis Star article Thursday, “Has Gov. Mike Braun burned all his political capital on redistricting?”
If he loses this battle, Governor Braun becomes the equivalent of a lame duck (and recall how solons largely ignored former Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) in the final two years of his second term); if he is successful, it may be a pyrrhic victory, because state lawmakers get nothing personally, politically (save for some who would have voted the same way to avoid a primary challenge) , or policy-wise from the win, and could well harbor lingering resentment against those who forced them to put their vote up on the board either way on the thorny issue.
In past decades, we’ve also seen some jockeying between leaders of each chamber, with newer leaders trying to establish themselves (or their side of the Rotunda) as at least co-equal, despite one leader having presided over his chamber for several years (given the difference in rules, culture, and perceived responsibilities of the two chambers, its surprising we haven’t seen more lasting divisions and greater divisiveness between them in many decades – a big departure from what the state endured during its first 150 years as Dr. Justin Walsh’s comprehensive tome on The Centennial History of the Indiana General Assembly reminds us).
That has been less of an issue with leaders Huston and Bray, given that they effectively started in both the legislature and in their respective leadership roles at the same time, and have proven to work well with each other. They also are straight shooters who don’t rely upon theatrics . . . but both recognize that they have significant coalitions of caucus members whose policy preferences run well to the right of leadership, and must not simply placate them, but actively court and fully incorporate them in the process – and the redistricting issue, given its exceptional profile and stakes, can certainly not be an exception to this principle.
There is another potential explanation, however, and it carries some much more serious implications.
Indiana may simply be a microcosm of what the President is experiencing across the country as the pendulum might be swinging back hard against the overreach. As senators were considering the calendar, news was starting to emerge that a panel of federal appellate judges was enjoining the effective date of the new GOP-favorable Texas district map until 2028, and GOP efforts in Ohio didn’t meet expectations. Of course, the California change was a blow to continued GOP House control, and Kansas opted against new maps.
Following the Indiana vote and the Texas change in effective date, Democracy Docket, the news side of the Democratic legal operation which has been litigating GOP redistricting efforts and restrictive changes to election laws, flatly states, “Tuesday’s vote signals that Trump should no longer assume automatic obedience from GOP-led state legislatures.”
Punchbowl News Wednesday suggests that the presidential “strategy hasn’t worked out as planned. In fact, it now looks like Trump and House GOP leaders may have been better off not doing anything at all …. All of this has left Republicans questioning whether this redistricting race was too risky of a gamble. Plenty of members secretly hated the idea of getting a new district mid-cycle.”
Indeed, a new (November 10-13) national Marist Poll finds Democrats basking in a 14-point lead over Republicans on the midterm generic ballot. A majority of registered voters nationally (55%) say they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, if the 2026 congressional elections were held today; 41% would support the Republican, and three percent would back another candidate. Among independents, Democrats (61%) enjoy a +33-point advantage over the Republicans (28%). Marist pollsters noted that “This is the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had a notable advantage on the congressional generic ballot question.” Just one year ago, registered voters were split 48% to 48% on the generic congressional ballot.
What this means for the Indiana congressional delegation is that if the national trends knock off even two or three points from a GOP lead in a given new district, the margin for Republicans – which will necessarily be trimmed if mid-decade redistricting spreads around Democratic votes from the current two majority-blue – could slip to mid-single-digit percentages, making 2026 significantly less comfortable for the GOP incumbents – who would also be competing for cash with the two new open-seat Republican hopefuls.
Any new candidates will have had no ability to raise early money, having to effectively start raising federal cash January 1, and potentially having to spend in a competitive primary, as well. If candidates emerge from the legislature, they will also have to be dialing for dollars while navigating the legislative session, leaving little time to traverse a new district and get themselves acquainted with (party leaders and) voters – and the new districts could well be less red than he existing districts, assuming incumbents lobby state lawmakers (and recall that most members of the delegation have strong ties to the State House) for more favorable district lines.
In Indiana, the fallout may be even more acute, because the impotent Democratic Party can’t be blamed for failure to draw new maps. This is strictly an internecine GOP tug of war, and how bloody it gets might be dependent upon whether the Trump agenda has finally begun to run its course (note the Tuesday House GOP vote for release of the Epstein files, a rebuke to the President who held firm against it until he couldn’t).
Indiana, the state that saw Donald Trump unceremoniously cast aside hometown favorite Mike Pence (R), may simply be the first state to have to come to terms with the future of the Republican Party: will it be a weakened party of Trump; a nascent party of Vance; a recharged MAGA party beholden to no individual; or return to its traditional establishment roots. Most likely it will be an amalgamation (given the strong coalition the 2024 Trump campaign assembled, flipping traditional constituencies and party loyalties), but that also begs the question of where Indiana will come out on this . . . and who will be the leader.
This battle could go a long way toward determining the direction of that future, but we’re not sure that any of the key leaders of the current fight are looking much beyond the current dispute or retribution and defense.
So as all of this political infighting takes place, Democrats are just sitting tight, counting their good fortunes (and probably rooting for injuries). As Sen. Bray fielded post-Org Day questions in a chaotic media scrum on the Senate floor, Senate Democratic Leader Shelli Yoder (D) just hung back next to Assistant Democratic Leader Andrea Hunley (D) with a smile on her face.
Sen. Yoder later “framed the abandonment as a victory for voters, who won’t have Washington operatives manipulating Indiana’s political landscape,” as Democracy Docket characterized it. “Washington insiders pressured the Governor to rig Indiana’s congressional maps in the middle of a decade for one reason. They were afraid of voters. They were afraid of losing power the honest way,” Sen. Yoder suggested. “Now that this reckless idea has collapsed, our focus can return to where it should have been all along. Hoosiers. Their budgets. Their safety. Their health. Their future. This should have never been considered.”
Betcha that Beau Bayh (D) is also beaming over this uncharacteristic GOP disarray, just wondering how high into the double-digit percentages this will rate next year as a litmus test for voters (including those delegates selecting his general election opponent on June 20 in the 2026 Fort Wayne Republican state convention).
As we emphasized when we first began writing about mid-decade redistricting, this was strictly an intramural Republican affair, and there was no way that any choice made Back Home could conceivably end well for any of them – instigator, opponent, or even those simply forced to vote on the end result (or actively or passively prevent such a vote).