A tough decision foisted upon Hoosier GOP lawmakers

Redistricting Indiana’s congressional districts at mid-decade was initially raised as a tentative proposition of sorts, and didn’t even seem to gain steam when Vice President JD Vance (R) paid a hastily scheduled visit to the State House to sell skeptical GOP legislative leaders and a noncommittal Governor Mike Braun (R) on the idea.

When no one of import (save Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith (R)) proffered early support for the proposition, we were ready to write it off as just wishful Inside the Beltway (Swamp?) political posturing. Even word that the White House was inviting Hoosier Republican lawmakers to an event designed to educate them seemed to be a final half-hearted attempt to keep the special session redraw on life support after several GOP House and Senate members publicly declared their opposition – ranging from MAGA supporters to more moderate establishment members – with some strongly castigating the concept.

But then the worm seemed to quickly turn. Forward America, a mysterious dark money group  suddenly emerged and Hoosiers were seemingly being bombarded with texts and robocalls (often apparently misdirected) asking voters to contact their lawmaker to fight back against California and New York “radicals” and get them back aboard the Trump Train and support new congressional district lines that would boost the President’s America First agenda instead of having the effect of “ending the Trump presidency.”

The robocalls generated a complaint to the Office of the Attorney General . . . which had seemed to encourage someone to come forward to do so. Recall that Attorney General Todd Rokita (R) has been an advocate for an independent panel handling redistricting, a position he adopted as secretary of state, and which found him at odds with GOP Senate leaders 15 years ago.

The formal complaint was filed by veteran GOP political operative Jewell DeBonis, according to Indiana Capital Chronicle. Ironically 35 years ago DeBonis was the campaign manager for the Gop candidate for secretary of state, the state’s chief election officer.

Concurrently, messages were being sent to state lawmakers that their failure to support special session mid-decade redistricting would ensure organized primary opposition – and the primary is tantamount to the general election for most of members of the supermajority. Given the composition of the primary electorate base in many, if not most, of those districts, at this point in the cycle, failing to fully toe the Trump line could be a fatal electoral decision.

The next big shoe to fall was on Monday, when the entire membership of the Indiana congressional delegation each took separately to social media to strongly declare their support for the special session mid-term redistricting scheme.

U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) was the first to declare his support for new maps, and even U.S. Reps. Erin Houchin (R) and Mark Messmer (R), who were part of the Senate Majority  Caucus that helped draw and approve the current district lines in 2021, fell in line with the rest of the delegation.

This seemingly coordinated campaign came even in spite of what we told you earlier in the month about how redrawing congressional district lines to effectively excise U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) and carve up the Indianapolis-centric district of U.S. Rep. André Carson (D) would have to come at the expense of potentially forcing some GOP incumbents to run in more competitive district.

Notably, a new redistricting supporter, U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R), whose district went from about +5 to + 13 after the 2021 redistricting, would likely face a fight in a new, less favorable, district (in both the primary and general), and the current CDs 02, 08 and CD 09 could be at risk in a more competitive cycle (Democrats have held seats from each of those areas in the last 20 years).

Last week, a core group of solons who were leading a rhetorical battle against a special session redistricting failed to grow . . . and one even defected.

Rep. Craig Haggard (R), who confirmed a U.S. House primary challenge to U.S. Rep. Jim Baird (R) in CD 04, backed off his early opposition to redrawing districts. That came as a surprise. Rep. Haggard’s Mooresville home at the southern edge of Morgan County is also at the southern edge of a famously longitudinal district that touches south Lake County. He would not likely find himself still in a post-redistricted Baird district in a House dominated by friends of Baird, particularly given that Rep. Beau Baird (R) has been quietly promoted as a successor to his father (two of the nine congressional districts – both of the Democrats – are currently held by lawmakers who had relatives from an earlier generation serve in the Indiana Senate).

Several other GOP lawmakers – and apparently, all Democrats – remain opposed to returning to the State House to draw new maps.

The list we’ve compiled seems to be comprised of Sens. Jim Buck (R), Spencer Deery (R), Jim Tomes (R) and Greg Walker (R) – whose districts may combine to touch four or five of Indiana’s congressional districts . . . and Reps. Becky Cash (R), Ed Clere (R), Danny Lopez (R), Ryan Lauer (R), Jim Lucas (who labels the idea “dumb as hell”), and J.D. Prescott (R). This is another cadre that represents districts touching at least four CDs.

The redistricting opponents join former Gov. Mitch Daniels and former House speaker Brian Bosma (R), both of whom know a good deal about the process and its politics.

Legislative leadership has been markedly silent, at this point listening to their respective caucuses. However, outside of the rabidly partisan world, calling a special session (at six-figure expense) to redraw districts based upon the same data used just four years earlier strictly to benefit one political party seems a bridge too far. But bear in mind, lawmakers still keeping their powder dry are products of the GOP-favorable districts drawn in 2021, and they may be listening now to the arguably smaller – but louder – crowd on the side of the fence reminding them of well-financed and primary challenges from credible opponents who will have White House support.

Ironically, WXIN-TV Fox 59’s Hannah Adamson, a reporter who wasn’t even in Indiana in 2021, ran a story this week which included 2021 video showing House Committee on Elections Chair Tim Wesco (R), House Speaker Todd Huston (R), and the cartographer-in-chief (with the help of national conservative election law guru Jason Torchinsky), Rep. Greg Steuerwald (R), now the House Republican caucus chair, publicly praising the maps for their fairness and constitutionality (Rep. Wesco even noted that the population deviation by congressional district was no more than one person).

Expect those declarations – made in the House chamber – to be recycled by those who contend that this is strictly a partisan political power grab at public expense, with no public benefit.

Even the state’s chief election officer, Secretary of State Diego Morales (R) (who made an unsuccessful primary bid a few cycles back for the CD 04 seat) took to his (political, not his official) Facebook page to tweet his support for new maps.

I fully support Republicans in the Indiana General Assembly utilizing their supermajorities for a redistricting process that will send more congressmen to Washington that will support President Donald J. Trump’s America First agenda.

Elections have consequences. Republicans in Indiana have earned the right to lead.

Redistricting is a political process, and for over a decade, Indiana voters have consistently chosen Republican leadership through decisive supermajorities.

That trust includes the responsibility to draw congressional maps that reflect the will of the voters – map that will send a delegation to Washington committed to advancing President Trump’s America First agenda.”

As we noted above, 15 years ago the then-GOP secretary of state sought to move map-making out of the legislative back rooms.

What this will boil down to is how much the Governor and Republican state legislative leaders are willing to stand up to the White House and MAGA leaders such as Conservative activist Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, who expanded on what we told you in our last issue he was saying about Indiana. “We will support primary opponents for Republicans in the Indiana State Legislature who refuse to support the team and redraw the maps,” Kirk vows in a tweet on X. “I’ve heard from grassroots across the country and they want elected Republicans to stand up and fight for them. It’s time for Republicans to be TOUGH Don’t let California steal the 2026 house from us.”

“ ‘They have a mountain of cash and even more motivation to win the redistricting wars Democrats started long ago,’ a person familiar with the White House’s thinking” tells POLITICO’s Adam Wren. “The electoral threats are an escalation of a pressure campaign as Trump and his allies try to extract more GOP seats in Congress  …. ‘Politics is a team sport, and they prefer to do things with the team … but if Republicans refuse to play team ball, they will very likely begin to focus on upgrading players,’ said the person, who was granted anonymity to discuss private operational plans.”

Given the solidarity of the Indiana House GOP congressional delegation (U.S. Sen. Todd Young (R) even backed off his earlier seemingly non-supportive comments this week), there is unprecedented pressure on the legislative supermajority . . .  and the odds have certainly shifted towards new maps from the needle pointing in the other direction one week earlier.

Nevertheless, POLITICO Playbook reports Thursday afternoon that “So far, the Hoosier State is proving to be the most significant challenge to Trump’s pressure campaign,” even as some four-dozen GOP solons plan to attend the White House event next week. Will they receive the revamped Rose Garden gold-umbrella treatment?

The wild card lurking in the back of the minds of those favoring special session redistricting: what would happen if political winds shift and Democrats take control at some point going forward (though they’ve been waiting for the pendulum to swing for 15 years and voters never seem to be outraged by any GOP-pushed laws). Would they seize the reins and redistrict simply because they can?

Then there is a practical question that you will hear raised if solons do return to the State House to draw new maps (or, more likely, approve map which have already largely been drafted and are already circulating): will the legislature feel compelled to update the 2020-21 census data that was the foundation for the zero-deviation maps that Rep. Wesco touted at the time . . . or will there be a push to update the data with new interim special census data that leaders of rapidly growing communities have funded to boost the amount of federal dollars distributed to their respective communities?

If mid-decade redistricting includes special census numbers, that will mean Boone County and Hamilton County will likely be able to increase their vote clout by being bigger factors in any new districts that are drawn, and likely force stagnant or dying rural areas into larger, less compact or contiguous geographic districts . . . and using data from different periods that would favor certain rapidly growing (read: prosperous) communities, and perhaps lead to an equal protection judicial challenge of first impression.

FYI, here are the social media statements from the Hoosier congressional Republicans:

  • U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R): “Democrats have proven they will use every tool available to them to gain and keep power.  For years, Republicans have idly stood by while the Left has weaponized government against us. It’s time for us to drop the gloves. At this moment, our state has the opportunity to give conservative Hoosiers the representation in DC they deserve. I stand with President Trump, it’s time to redraw Indiana’s congressional map!”
  •  U.S. Rep. Mark Messmer (R): “I am proud to support Hoosier State Legislators and our great @GovBraun in fighting the long history of weaponized voter manipulation in CA, NY, and IL. Redistricting in Indiana will accurately reflect the will of Hoosier voices.”
  • U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R): “This fall, Indiana will have the chance to respond to Democrats’ gerrymandering and stand with President Trump and the state of Texas to stand up for our REPUBLIC! Given developments across the country, I fully support mid-cycle redistricting.”
  • U.S. Rep. Erin Houchin (R):  “Democrats will stop at nothing to push their radical agenda. Republicans can’t accept that any longer. Indiana can act to guarantee that all Hoosiers have the strongest possible conservative voices in Washington. I’m standing with President Trump – it’s time to redraw Indiana’s congressional map.”
  • U.S. Rep. Rudy Yakym (R): “Democrats have long used every tool to advance their agenda and hold power. Republicans can’t afford to stay on the sidelines any longer. Indiana now has a chance to ensure conservative Hoosiers are truly represented in Washington. I stand with President Trump – it’s time to redraw our congressional map.”
  • U.S. Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R): “I support the President’s call to counterbalance radical blue states’ governors like Gavin Newsom and JB Pritzker who’ve long manipulated districts in California and Illinois. Their gerrymandering efforts undercut fair representation. Hoosiers can help turn this tide.”
  • U.S. Rep. Jim Baird (R): “Hoosiers are fed up with our voice being drowned out by partisan gerrymandering in liberal states like Illinois. Trump won Indiana by nearly 19 points – our congressional map should reflect that. I stand with President Trump on redistricting to bring fairness back to the process and ensure Indiana’s representation truly matches the will of its voters.”