Signs on in tough times, but how does the environment stack up?
Some quasi-random thoughts to ponder about the first legislative session for the Braun Administration . . .
Someone in the hallway with experience in 206 under a previous governor suggests to us that the political milieu in which Governor Mike Braun (R) landed in January may have deprived him of an opportunity to advance more of his broader agenda for the state. These constraints certainly include the anticipated lack of available revenue . . . but the political undercurrent seems to be the key.
Based upon his campaign rhetoric and foundation laid during his six frustrating years in Washington, D.C., voters expected a lot of fundamental change in government from the get-go, much as they saw from Mitch Daniels (R) when he transitioned from D.C. back to Indianapolis to win the 2004 election. And, like Braun who campaigned on a platform highlighting property tax relief, Gov. Daniels quickly targeted an overhaul of the property tax system, even going so far as to push lawmakers to open committee hearings on his proposals between Thanksgiving and Christmas – an expedited schedule that would have been viewed as heresy before then. But it worked, and we saw the critical steps quickly achieved toward a major constitutional overhaul in a compressed period of time.
As you may recall, however, Indiana was then moving from Democratic control of the governorship and (frequently) the U.S. and Indiana House as well (and Gov. Daniels had the Obama Administration as a thorn in his side for his second term). By contrast, Governor Braun walked into a position which had been in Republican hands for two full decades; a long-standing Republican legislative supermajority; and Republican control of the Indiana congressional delegation and Congress. You must also factor in the Trump effect, and Gov. Braun’s adherence to that movement and agenda (if you have any doubts, just check out all the parallel subject-matter executive orders from the President and the Governor and parse the lack of substantive differences between the documents).
If Suzanne Crouch (R) or Brad Chambers (R) had won the Republican gubernatorial primary and general election last year, you would no doubt have seen considerably more wiggle room between Indiana and D.C. politics. Yet look at Gov. Braun’s level of comfort with the MAGA world (and that of the Hoosier electorate writ large – or at least the GOP base, which seems to be the corner of the party in Indiana to which elected officials at all levels are most responsive). If you do so, you will find that the Governor is left with a tough political needle to thread if he were to “go rogue” and hew more to the old establishment, more moderate (think: Eric Holcomb (R)) wing of his party.
Some of this is of the Governor’s own choosing.
He has boxed himself into the campaign theme that he has applied to virtually everything: We can cut our way out of any fiscal dilemma. This, of course, is driven by his Main Street businessman mantra and mindset (“We never had any problem cutting five or 10 percent out of anything”) . . . but it also left him without a backup plan when his advocacy for pure property tax relief ran into a brick wall: Local government officials who simply did not see a similar ability (the Guv would say inclination) to compel comparable cuts at the local level – and then that pile-up got rear-ended by the depressing revenue forecast.
Gov. Daniels at least had some fun with it in his time, joking about how “there’s so much government that you’ll never miss,” as well as owning up to his own “bone-headed” ideas such as the quickly dropped (and long-forgotten) income tax surcharge for six-figure earners. He also went beyond just the basics of cost-cutting to be creative in reworking systems, processes, outcomes, etc. that we haven’t yet seen (in an admittedly short four months – consumed by a long legislative session) from Gov. Braun and his vaunted Cabinet. And when the global fiscal crisis hit as the second Daniels term was set to debut, The Blade was also bolstered by an unprecedented amount of federal stimulus dollars, without which the state would have had a tough time even carrying out the daily “stuff of government.”
Similarly, Governor Holcomb was able to continue the “blocking and tackling” of basic government work during the Covid-19 pandemic with another welcome massive infusion of federal pandemic relief.
He’s not trolling the crossroads this month looking for sympathy, but there aren’t any prospects for federal dollars to help Gov. Braun shore up state finances. This will unquestionably render his task much more difficult than those facing his predecessors. That’s clear even if the more pessimistic trend lines bandied about by the state’s retained S&P Global economist fail to translate into reality . . . even as that pessimistic 35% prospect is looking more likely by the day.
Some of that is also brought about or exacerbated by Trump Administration economic policy, particularly tariffs, which will have a disproportionate impact on the Hoosier State’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Gov. Braun’s support for the Trump Administration makes it more difficult for him to put some daylight between himself and some of these potentially deleterious actions. That renders his overall task of governance a tad more problematic as he looks for the appropriate balance.
Gov. Braun’s governance via executive order doesn’t seem to have earned him any goodwill from lawmakers (although a case can be made that some of his EOs dealing with social policy may have helped legislative leaders avoid placing members in a tough spot if they were to have voted on related legislation).
He did quickly learn, however, that he ought not claim victory for his property tax proposal – which the final product was decidedly not – after some legislators privately suggested that he had gotten rolled despite owning the bully pulpit. Although he initially declared victory, his statements on the issue swiftly became much more nuanced, and he even publicly conceded he didn’t get what he had wanted – although pointing the blame at the amorphous convenient target of “lobbyists” and local government officials who didn’t want to tighten their belts. The Guv also acknowledges that everyone will return for “fine-tuning” on this in 2026 . . . and he knows that he’s not running in a May 2026 primary – the voting period which will be in progress as 2025-pay-2026 property tax bills hit voter mailboxes one year before they will see the result of any 2025 or 2026 changes.
So as the Governor finally earns some breathing room – and the focus of attention for the first time – now that lawmakers have scattered back across the state, keep an eye on how the next few months evolve, because this can shape his administration in the eyes of the public, which won’t be distracted by the prospect of an immediate election season and referendum on the just-completed session, as would be the case following a short session.
Has he imposed some firm deadlines for specific progress that he expects from his Cabinet members? How will he cope with a potentially even more severe economic crisis – and, for example, is he preparing key agencies to address potential fallout? How quickly will he restructure and repurpose the Indiana Economic Development Corporation and its mission, and will there be a short-run component to this? With the session imperative to stick close to the State House behind him, will he spend more time on the road, traveling the state as was his wont as a senator and as he has pledged? Assuming that’s the case, what will be the reaction, as Hoosier members of Congress – from both sides of the aisle – have largely avoided taking their respective cases directly to their constituents and have not directly heard the nature and extent of their grievances? There is significant risk to Governor Braun for doing so . . . but potentially a political price to pay (and one that could hurt him in pushing for policy change going forward) should he opt against such events (particularly as his lieutenant governor has shown a marked proclivity for sticking his head into this lion’s den).
Governor Braun is walking a delicate line right now as Hoosiers start to ponder what he’s all about and what he can do for them. How he handles things through the summer and whether he can create an organic base of support for himself will play a large part in how successful he might be in delivering his first full legislative agenda in 2026 . . . but even that may be severely attenuated by the cash crunch.